Our most advanced test in development is a blood-based colorectal cancer screening test which allows for the early detection of colorectal cancer by measuring DNA methylation biomarkers in plasma.
In a clinical study in December 2006, we demonstrated that by measuring a DNA methylation biomarker panel that included our proprietary biomarker Septin 9 in blood plasma, we could detect 66% of all colorectal cancers (i.e. a sensitivity of 66%) at a high specificity of 93% (i. e. only 7% false positive test results). This result was achieved by improving the sample processing workflow from the previous year’s studies by adding a repeated measurement of the marker. With this new workflow, the leading marker Septin 9 alone detected up to 70% of the colorectal cancers at a slightly higher false positive rate (specificity of 90%) or, if optimized for a low false positive rate of 3% (specificity 97%), 63% of the cancers.
Between January 2007 and early July 2007 we have been working to further optimize the assay procedure for this test for transfer into a reference laboratory and placement on high throughput molecular diagnostic platforms of potential IVD partners for global development and commercialization. In a technical study completed in early July 2007, we demonstrated that the newly established optimized assay procedure analytically performs equally or better to the previously used research workflow.
Annual colorectal cancer screening is recommended in the USA for all individuals above the age of 50 which, if applied more broadly, would include up to 300 million people in major market countries. The current standard test is a stool-based test, the so called Fecal Occult Blood Test ("FOBT"), with - in our view - a relatively low sensitivity and low convenience for the patient. The compliance rate for FOBT is estimated to be only 16% in the U.S. In addition, an invasive endoscopic procedure such as colonoscopy is available for early detection of colorectal cancer. In our view, its nature, cost, and availability for mass screening make it impractical as a broad, population-wide primary screening procedure. The goal of the American Cancer Society is to have a compliance rate of above 75% in the relevant age group to allow early detection. The clinical benefit of early detection is significant given that colorectal cancer detected at an early stage has a 90% five-year-survival rate.
Our colorectal cancer screening test is blood-based and has, in our view, a higher sensitivity than the most widely used FOBT. Clinical experts believe that such a blood-based screening test could drive compliance and reduce mortality from this cancer by detecting more cancers at earlier stages. We estimate that the market for a blood-based colorectal cancer screening IVD test kit could have a volume of more than € 3 billion in peak sales potential for diagnostics companies in the major markets (U.S., Europe, Japan).
We expect this test to be launched as a testing service in centralized reference laboratories in 2008*. For the subsequent broad global commercialization as an IVD test kit which can be used by any clinical diagnostic laboratory with molecular diagnostics capabilities we pursue a non-exclusive licensing and partnering strategy aiming for partnerships with various diagnostics companies. Our strategic partner Abbott Molecular will be the first diagnostic company to develop and commercialize our colorectal cancer early detection test. Abbott will transfer our test for the early detection of colorectal cancer on their molecular diagnostic m2000 system and anticipates a market launch in Europe in 2009 followed by filing for U.S. regulatory submission for approval in 2010.
* Current Epigenomics management estimate for earliest possible launch.
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